We are in the process of consolidating and redesigning our space at AIIM HQ in response to changes in the way that we work. In doing so, one of our tasks is to go through a bunch of old stuff and figure out what to do with it.
One embarassing aspect of this exercise is coming upon all of those strategic plans that attempted to predict where the industry was going. Any of those plans from my tenure will not appear in this space.
However, I came upon an AIIM Strategic Plan from 20 years ago (before my time), and thought it might be of interest.
It actually is pretty good when you consider that twenty years is a hell of a long time. As someone once said (it seems to have many authors), "It's dangerous to predict, especially about the future."
To put it in perspectivein everyday terms...In 1992...
- Year End Close Dow Jones Industrial Average = 3301
- Average Cost of new house = $122,500
- Average Income per year = $30,030
- Cost of a gallon of Gas = $1.05
- 1 LB of Bacon = $1.92 [Note: This is a core metric that I think should be a part of any "happiness index"]
- Average cost of new car = $16,950
To put it in perspective in technology terms...
- Windows 3.1 was released by Microsoft
- Microsoft Works was released by Microsoft
- AT & T released a video telephone for $1,499.
- All the data traversing the global net in 1992 totaled 48 terabytes. Today, YouTube alone streams 48 terabytes of data every 21 seconds. [Bret Swanson]
- Browsers, PDFs, JPEGs, and e-mail were either non-existent or in limited use.
So taking all of that into account, the AIIM prognosticators from 20 years ago were remarkably good. A few excerpts (HERE is the more detail):
- Information devices will converge.
- "Documents" are now multimedia, with more information and greater interactivity.
- "The knowledge worker has changed the way work is done, accessing many sources of information quickly and easily from any remote place and time."
- The "office" as we know it will be a much more flexible place, with fewer boundaries.
- Portable, high-resolution devices with access to millions of pages of information.
And in the "if they only knew" category...
- "Work from home. Work from the road. Work from vacation. Work, work, work."
- "Marketers will know a lot more about you -- what you watch, what you buy, what you're doing."
So download the summary, and enjoy.
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And also in the realm of prognostication...
Systems of Engagement and the Future of Enterprise IT: A Sea Change in Enterprise IT
C-Change: The Impact of Consumerization of IT
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